FANDOM


INVEST 99L ADVISORY DISCUSSION 1
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
1800 UTC WED 1 AUG 2012

INVEST 99L CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN 
EN ROUTE TO BECOMING THE FIFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OF THE YEAR. IN THE PAST 12 HOURS, WHILE CONVECTION HAS
SOMEWHAT DECREASED ELSEWHERE, MORE DEVELOPED AND COOLER
CLOUD TOPS HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER... 
ANOTHER INDICATION THAT 99L MAY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SHORTLY. CURRENT TAFB NUMBERS ARE AT 1.5... MATCHING THE 
CURRENT ANALYSIS ON THE CURRENT HEALTH OF 99L. 

99L IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A HEALTHY ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW SHEAR AND MOIST CONDITIONS AROUND IT. ALTHOUGH 
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCTIVE FOR MORE EXTREME 
INTENSIFICATION, THIS IS SUFFICIENT FOR A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING PHASE AT LEAST UP TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
SEA WEST OF JAMAICA. THERE A LARGE SHEAR AREA IS
PRODUCING IN-CONDUCTIVE ACTIVITY THAT WILL HAMPER THE
STORM. IT IS UNKNOWN WHAT CONDITIONS MAY BE PAST 
JAMAICA. 

FORECAST
--------
INIT...01/1200Z...10.7N 46.9W...25KT/1009 MB...INVEST
12HR...02/0000Z...10.9N 48.2W...30KT/1007 MB
24HR...02/1200Z...10.7N 52.1W...30KT/1006 MB...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36HR...03/0000Z...12.0N 55.2W...35KT/1004 MB...TROPICAL STORM
48HR...03/1200Z...12.4N 59.6W...40KT/1002 MB
72HR...04/1200Z...14.1N 66.1W...45KT/1000 MB
96HR...05/1200Z...15.0N 73.0W...50KT/997 MB
120HR...06/1200Z...15.8N 76.8W...60KT/994 MB

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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