FANDOM


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
0000 UTC THU 03 AUG 2012


SINCE THE LAST COMPLETE ADVISORY, 05L HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
GROWN LARGER WITH MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
A WIDESPREAD AREA. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION PLACEMENT IS 
SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED IN THIS ADVISORY, 05L MAINTAINS 
A SIGNIFICANT AND STRONG CIRCULATION PATTERN WHICH KEEPS
IT CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. 05L IS CURRENTLY
DEALING WITH MARGINAL DRY AIR AS INDICATED BY ARC CLOUDS
RUNNING ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OF 05L, ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD NOT PUT A DAMPER ON STRENGTHENING BY TOMORROW.

A RECON FLIGHT TODAY CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL OCEANIC
AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION OF THE UNITED STATES 
RECORDED SURFACE LEVEL WINDS THAT SUGGESTED A 45 KT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, SATELLITE IMAGES AND 
DVORAK ANALYSIS HAVE SUGGESTED OTHERWISE. THE FINAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN 
THE HIGH RECON ESTIMATE AND THE LOW SATELLITE ESTIMATE,
MAKING 05L A TROPICAL STORM AND GIVING IT THE NAME
ERNESTO.

UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT ONCE EXISTED IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SEA HAVE SINCE ABATED. SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ERNESTO HAS 
SINCE DROPPED. CONDITIONS, WHILE NOT NECESSARILY 
REPRESENTATIVE OF EXTREME CONDITIONS AT THE MOMENT, ARE 
FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, 
HOWEVER, MAYBE CONDUCTIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH
HIGH TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL, LOW SHEAR, AND WARM 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.


FORECAST
--------
INIT...03/0000Z...12.8N 55.6W...40 KT 1007 MB
12HR...03/1200Z...12.9N 59.1W...40 KT 1006 MB
24HR...04/0000Z...13.6N 62.4W...45 KT 1004 MB
36HR...04/1200Z...14.1N 66.0W...45 KT 1003 MB
48HR...05/0000Z...14.6N 68.8W...50 KT 1000 MB
72HR...06/0000Z...16.0N 75.2W...60 KT 995 MB
96HR...07/0000Z...17.0N 80.0W...65 KT 989 MB
120HR..08/0000Z...19.1N 83.4W...75 KT 984 MB

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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