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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4B
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
0300 UTC FRI 03 AUG 2012

...ERNESTO PROCEEDING WITH MORE STORMS...

INFORMATION FROM 0000 UTC FRI 03 AUG 2012
-----------------------------------------
CURRENT LOCATION: 13.3 NORTH 57.4 WEST
CURRENT WINDS: 50 MPH
CURRENT PRESSURE: 1005 MILLIBARS

DISCUSSION AND FORECAST
-----------------------
AT 0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARDS 
THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. 
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND... WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BEING CONSISTENTLY BUILT
AS ERNESTO DEVELOPS INTO A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM, MANY AREAS
WILL SEE GUSTY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
AS MOST OF THE STRONGER, SEVERE WINDS ARE IN THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE OF ERNESTO, MARTINQUE AND ST. LUCIA WILL SEE THE 
MOST WIND IMPACTS FROM THE STORM. ADDITIONALLY, MANY QUICK
FORMING STORM CELLS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AS ERNESTO MOVES
INTO THE LESSER ANTILLES, WHICH WILL ALSO BRING GUSTS OF UP
TO 65 MPH... THE LIMIT FOR SEVERE QUALIFICATION.

RAINFALL... AS ERNESTO IS CURRENTLY A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, 
RAINFALL IS THE MAIN IMPACT FOR ERNESTO. RAINFALL FROM THE
CORE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREAS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED INCLUDING BARBADOS ESPECIALLY. THE AMOUNTS WILL 
LIKELY RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 50 MM/HR ARE
POSSIBLE IN STORM CELLS WITH 20 MM/HR WIDESPREAD. BASED ON 
MODELS, TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO WILL GET THE BRUNT OF RAINFALL
ACTIVITY.

SURF... MOST AREAS OFFSHORE THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL EXPERIENCE
WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 12 FT IN LOCALIZED POSITIONS, WITH 8 FT 
WAVE HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREAS THAT ERNESTO WILL PROGRESS
THROUGH.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
COMPLETE: 1500 UTC THU 02 AUG 2012

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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