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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
2100 UTC THU 03 AUG 2012

ERNESTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION
IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT HAS STRENGTHENED 
SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO IS CHARACTERISTIC OF A WEAK 
TROPICAL STORM, ALTHOUGH ITS CORE IS NOT VERY ORGANIZED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS THE INTENSITY FOR ERNESTO
REMAINS THE SAME. INTENSE RAINBANDS IN THE EASTERN 
HEMISPHERE OF ERNESTO HAVE STRONG REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURES.

AS CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAVE IMPROVED 
SLIGHTLY, THE FORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER, CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR ONLY MARGINAL IF NO DEVELOPMENT
WHATSOEVER.



FORECAST
--------
INIT...03/1800Z...13.8N 63.3W...45 KT 1002 MB
12HR...04/0600Z...14.0N 66.0W...45 KT 1001 MB
24HR...04/1800Z...14.4N 69.2W...50 KT 997 MB
36HR...05/0600Z...15.3N 72.7W...50 KT 995 MB
48HR...05/1800Z...15.9N 76.9W...60 KT 993 MB
72HR...06/1800Z...16.1N 78.9W...60 KT 991 MB
96HR...07/1800Z...19.2N 83.3W...70 KT 986 MB
120HR..08/1800Z...21.2N 87.0W...85 KT 980 MB

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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