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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
2100 UTC SAT 4 AUG 2012

ERNESTO, WHILE ITS WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN NECESSARILY REFLECTIVE
DUE TO THE MARGINAL PRESSURE GRADIENT, HAS SIGNIFICANTLY 
GAINED ORGANIZATION. TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MAINTAINS A STRONG
FIELD OF OUTFLOW. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE ANALYSIS, IT APPEARS
THAT ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING AN EYE, ALTHOUGH THIS IS 
PRIMARILY A MID-LEVEL FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CIMSS ADVANCED 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE INDICATES THAT ERNESTO MAY BE ALREADY A HURRICANE.
A HURRICANE RECON PASS OF ERNESTO SHOULD CONFIRM THESE INDICATIONS
LATER THIS EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOR ERNESTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DUE TO NO 
SIGNIFICANT ENVIRONMENTAL BAFFLES, BUT CONDITIONS IN THE WEST 
CARIBBEAN MAY BE CONDUCTIVE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING. THE LOWEST
ESTIMATE IS THAT ERNESTO WILL AT LEAST BE A MODERATE TO STRONG
CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE YUCATAN.


FORECAST
--------
INIT...04/1800Z   14.6N 69.3W   50 KT 1002 MB
12HR...05/0600Z   15.1N 73.1W   55 KT 999 MB
24HR...05/1800Z   15.8N 75.8W   55 KT 996 MB
36HR...06/0600Z   16.8N 77.7W   65 KT 992 MB
48HR...06/1800Z   17.6N 80.1W   70 KT 986 MB
72HR...07/1800Z   18.9N 83.4W   80 KT 979 MB
96HR...08/1800Z   20.3N 87.2W   90 KT 974 MB
120HR..09/1800Z   22.2N 89.8W   80 KT 977 MB

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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