FANDOM


TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
0000 UTC MON 7 AUG 2012

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS NOW A MUCH MORE POWERFUL AND ORGANIZED
SYSTEM THEN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY. MIMIC-TC 85GHz ANALYSIS DEVELOPED
BY CIMSS HAS SHOWN THAT THE CORE OF ERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A MORE
WELL DEFINED AND SOLID FORM, AND IS NOW AT LEAST DEVELOPING AN 
EYEWALL THAT IS NEARLY COMPLETE. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PORTION OF
ERNESTO IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED... THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD BE 
RESOLVED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES LANDFALL. SAB/TAFB
NUMBERS HAVE ALSO IMPROVED TO 3.5, AND CIMSS ADT NUMBERS HAVE 
IMPROVED TO 4.5. THE PRESSURES FOR ERNESTO ARE NOW CONSISTENT
WITH THE WIND SPEEDS OF ERNESTO... WHICH INDICATE THAT WE SHOULD 
NOT SEE ANY MAJOR SURPRISES FROM IT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS WAS ONCE SUGGESTED,
AS ERNESTO IS PASSING SOMEWHAT MORE SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
ERNESTO IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...06/1800Z   16.0N 81.0W   55 KT 995 MB
12HR...07/0600Z   16.6N 83.1W   60 KT 992 MB
24HR...07/1800Z   17.4N 85.3W   70 KT 989 MB...HURRICANE
36HR...08/0600Z   18.3N 87.5W   75 KT 985 MB...LANDFALL IN CHETUMAL, BZ AREA
48HR...08/1800Z   18.9N 90.2W   55 KT 994 MB...TROPICAL STORM
72HR...09/1800Z   19.9N 95.5W   70 KT 986 MB...OVERWATER, HURRICANE
96HR...10/1800Z   19.7N 96.8W   70 KT 984 MB...OVERLAND
120HR..11/1800Z   19.1N 98.7W   25 KT 1003 MB...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE

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