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TROPICAL STORM GILES DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
1500 UTC SUN 05 AUG 2012

AFTER PEAKING AT 60 KT EARLIER...GILES HAS WEAKENED AS EASILY NOTICED BY
THE LOSS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOST LIKELY DUE TO
STRENGTHENING WIND SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH EAST.

THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY IN CONSENSUS...FOR ONCE. GILES SHOULD CONTINUE
ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY
THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...05/1200Z...16.4N 35.0W...50 KT 1000 MB
12HR...06/0000Z...16.7N 37.4W...45 KT 1002 MB
24HR...06/1200Z...17.0N 40.9W...45 KT 1003 MB
36HR...07/0000Z...17.4N 44.2W...40 KT 1004 MB
48HR...07/1200Z...17.9N 47.9W...40 KT 1004 MB
72HR...08/1200Z...19.7N 54.7W...35 KT 1006 MB
96HR...09/1200Z...22.3N 60.6W...30 KT 1007 MB
120HR..10/1200Z...24.8N 64.9W...25 KT 1010 MB...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER KIEWII

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