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INVEST 93L DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
2100 UTC SAT 11 AUG 2012

DESPITE THE LOSS OF CONVECTION...WE HAVE DECIDED TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON
INVEST 93L...LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE THE MOST PROBABLE CAUSE OF THE WEAKENING. SST'S CURRENTLY
ARE ABOUT 25C...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30C BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

WE ARE EXPECTING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT FROM 93L UNTIL DAY FOUR WHEN THE
CYCLONE COULD START RECURVING MORE TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE...SST'S COULD REACH ABOVE 30C...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
AN INCREASE OF SHEAR WHILE OVER THE WARM OCEAN WATERS.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...11/1800Z...19.5N 29.5W...25 KT 1009 MB
12HR...12/0600Z...21.2N 33.6W...25 KT 1008 MB
24HR...12/1800Z...22.0N 37.3W...25 KT 1008 MB
36HR...13/0600Z...23.9N 42.4W...30 KT 1006 MB
48HR...13/1800Z...25.4N 46.6W...30 KT 1005 MB
72HR...14/1800Z...26.5N 50.0W...35 KT 1003 MB
96HR...15/1800Z...27.9N 50.9W...45 KT  998 MB
120HR..16/1800Z...30.4N 50.4W...50 KT  996 MB

FORECASTER KIEWII

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