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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY DISCUSSION 5
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
1500 UTC TUE 4 JULY 2012

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E, IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HAS NOT CHANGED
VERY MUCH IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE STRUCTURE HAS ATTAINED
A MORE COMPACT AND CIRCULAR APPEARANCE AS OPPOSED TO ITS PREVIOUSLY
RAGGED BANDING STRUCTURE. THE LATEST ASCAT PASSES HAVE INDICATED 
MOSTLY 20-25 KT WINDS AROUND THE SYSTEM, WITH SOME AREAS OF 30 KT
WINDS. THE LATEST SSD AND ADT CIMSS DVORAK INTENSITY RATINGS ARE 
CURRENTLY AROUND 2.0, WHICH INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FOUR-E IS NEARING OR IS ALREADY AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW 96E IS EXPECTED TO HEAD OUT TO 
THE NNW, GENERALLY IN ITS CURRENT HEADING. ALL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
AGREEING WITH THIS GENERAL PATTERN. INTENSITY-WISE, MODELS HAVE 
RECENTLY GAINED A MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH, WITH SOME RAISED TO 
HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 180 HOURS.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...03/1500Z...30KT/1005 MB
12HR...04/0300Z...35KT/1002 MB...TROPICAL STORM
24HR...04/1500Z...40KT/1000 MB
36HR...05/0300Z...50KT/997 MB
48HR...05/1500Z...60KT/992 MB
72HR...06/1500Z...70KT/999 MB...HURRICANE
96HR...07/1500Z...75KT/987 MB
120HR..08/1500Z...70KT/990 MB


$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory #5
Public Advisory · Forecast Advisory · Discussion

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