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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ADVISORY DISCUSSION 1
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC AUSTIN TX USA
2100 UTC SAT 7 JULY 2012

INVEST 97E HAS GAINED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CONSIDERED
A FULLY TROPICAL SYSTEM, THE FIFTH OF THE YEAR. 97E HAS 
ALREADY DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES, AND HAS THE 
APPEARANCE OF THE PREDECESSOR TO HURRICANE CARLOTTA. THE SSD
HAS ALREADY LABELED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E WITH A DVORAK
INTENSITY OF 1.5. ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE, IT
IT DOES REVEAL THAT TD 5 IS AN ORGANIZED SYSTEM.

THE FORECAST FOR FIVE-E IS LOCKED IN WITH A CLEAR CONSENSUS
IN THE MODELS, WHICH INDICATE A GRADUAL NW AND NNW MOTION
ACROSS THE PACIFIC, LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR HURRICANE DANIEL.
IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER FUTURE EMILIA WILL THREATEN HAWAII.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS. THE FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER ECHELONS OF MODEL 
GUIDANCE, AS WITH DANIEL, ALTHOUGH WITH DANIEL THE
MODELS APPEARED TO BE TOO CONSERVATIVE AND THUS THE
AGGRESSIVE MODELS WON OUT. WE ARE SEEING THE SAME THING
WITH 05E, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS
ALREADY.


FORECAST
--------
INIT...07/1500Z...30KT/1005 MB
12HR...08/0300Z...35KT/1002 MB...TROPICAL STORM
24HR...08/1500Z...40KT/999 MB
36HR...09/0300Z...50KT/995 MB
48HR...09/1500Z...60KT/990 MB
72HR...10/1500Z...75KT/987 MB...HURRICANE
96HR...11/1500Z...90KT/977 MB
120HR..12/1500Z...80KT/980 MB

$$
FORECASTER COBRASTRIKE
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory #5
Public Advisory · Forecast Advisory · Discussion

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