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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
KIEWII-COBRA STRIKE GLOBAL ANALYTICAL CYCLONE CENTER
0300 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FABIO IS STRENGTHENING. RECENT INFRARED IMAGES REVEAL AN EYE FEATURE DEVELOPING AND THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS ORGANIZING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THREE HOURS AGO ARE T4.3/72 KT FROM DARREN23, T4.1/67 KT FROM CYCLONE10, AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB. OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE T4.4/74.6 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS AND T4.1/67 KT FROM THE SSD. INTERESTINGLY...THE NHC SET AN INTIAL STARTING INTENSITY AT 80 KT. THIS GIVES A BROAD CONSENSUS OF 75 KT...THE BASIS FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO REVEAL THAT THE CORE IS NOT THAT WELL STACKED...DUE TO THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.

THE NHC NOTES THAT FABIO IS RAPIDLY ORGANIZING...AND THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS AT A MODERATELY HIGH 17 PERCENT. WHILE THIS POSSIBILITY IS CONSIDERED...THERE IS NO SUFFICIENT EVIDENCE TO RAISE THE FORECAST THAT HIGH. AND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY FABIO ENTERING SUBOPTIMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY HAS FABIO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND SLOWLY COOLING WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS.

CURRENT STEERING WILL MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION. HOWEVER...A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES WILL EVENTUALLY PULL THE SYSTEM AND RECURVE IT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE...BUT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAXIMUM WINDS


INIT...14/0300Z...15.9N 111.5W...75 KT
12HR...14/1500Z...16.2N 113.7W...80 KT
24HR...15/0300Z...16.5N 115.1W...75 KT
36HR...15/1500Z...16.8N 116.5W...65 KT
48HR...16/0300Z...17.4N 118.2W...60 KT
72HR...17/0300Z...19.1N 119.9W...45 KT
96HR...18/0300Z...20.9N 120.9W...35 KT
120HR..19/0300Z...23.2N 12O.9W...30 KT...POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

FORECASTER DARREN23

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