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HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
KIEWII-COBRA STRIKE GLOBAL ANALYTICAL CYCLONE CENTER
1500 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FABIO HAS SOMEWHAT BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEAL A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE WITH FABIO. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB AND T4.8/84 KT FROM THE KCSGACC. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.4/75 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT...T4.3/72 KT FROM THE SSD ADT...AND 90 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS AMSU. AND...THE OFFICIAL NHC ESTIMATE FROM 3 HOURS AGO WAS 80 KT. WITH THIS BROAD RANGE OF DATA...AND THE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...FABIO IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RAW T NUMBERS UP TO T5.9

THE SHEAR THAT WAS TALKED ABOUT PREVIOUSLY DID NOT SEEM TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION FROM FABIO FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...FABIO IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST. BUT...FABIO SEEMS TO BE RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO ORGANIZE QUICKLY. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION CAN ENSUE...IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...GIVEN THAT IT IS ALREADY ENTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS SHOWING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE PROBABILITIES FOR INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE...MARGINAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND WEAKENING WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT REMAINS UNCHANGED AFTERWARDS.

NORMAL EASTERN PACIFIC STEERING PATTERS WILL CONTINUE TO DICTATE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. BUT...A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PULL THE CYCLONE AND RECURVE IT NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARDS. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF FORECAST MODELS...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL NHC GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAXIMUM WINDS


INIT...14/1500Z...16.1N 114.2W...85 KT
12HR...15/0300Z...16.6N 115.5W...90 KT
24HR...15/1500Z...16.9N 117.3W...80 KT
36HR...16/0300Z...17.4N 118.3W...70 KT
48HR...16/1500Z...18.2N 119.9W...65 KT
72HR...17/1500Z...20.0N 121.5W...40 KT
96HR...18/1500Z...22.7N 121.6W...30 KT
120HR..19/1500Z...25.3N 121.2W...25 KT...POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW

FORECASTER DARREN23

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