FANDOM


HURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
KIEWII-COBRA STRIKE GLOBAL ANALYTICAL CYCLONE CENTER
2100 UTC SAT JUL 14 2012

FABIO HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK BETTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS BECOME MORE CLEAR TO VISUAL IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.0/90 KT FROM THE KCSGACC AND T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MUCH HIGHER...WITH A T5.4/100 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT AND T5.7/107 KT FROM SSD ADT. DUE TO THE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH ADT NUMBERS...AND THE INCREASING DEFINITION OF THE EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT...WELL ABOVE THE NHC ESTIMATE OF 80 KT.

FABIO HAS REMARKABLY CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY IN THE FACE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. WHILE THIS HINDERANCE IS EXPECTED TO ABATE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FABIO WILL BE ENTERING SUBOPTIMAL SSTS AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE LAST ADVISORY...AND HAS FABIO DISSIPATING BY 120 HOURS.

THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY. A TROUGH...LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...IS STILL EXPECTED TO PULL AND RECURVE FABIO TO THE NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY A LARGE CLUSTER OF GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK.

DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF FABIO SURVIVES...ITS REMNANTS COULD BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAXIMUM WINDS


INIT...14/2100Z...16.2N 114.9W...90 KT
12HR...15/0900Z...16.6N 116.4W...80 KT
24HR...15/2100Z...17.1N 118.2W...70 KT
36HR...16/0900Z...18.0N 119.7W...65 KT
48HR...16/2100Z...19.2N 120.7W...55 KT
72HR...17/2100Z...21.1N 121.1W...35 KT
96HR...18/2100Z...22.6N 121.4W...25 KT...POST TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW
120HR..19/2100Z...DISSIPATING

FORECASTER DARREN23

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