East Pacific Basin/2012/July/90E/Advisory 1/Discussion

INVEST 90E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
KIEWII-COBRA STRIKE GLOBAL ANALYTICAL CYCLONE CENTER 
0300 UTC MON JUL 23 2012 

OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...90E HAS BEEN RAPIDLY ORGANIZING...TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION 
HAS BECOME BETTER...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STORM
...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
DEVELOPING. BECAUSE OF THE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...CENTER POSITION
ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN REVISED MULTIPLE TIMES. THE CENTER IS THEREFORE
UNCERTAIN. CENTER RELOCATIONS AND REFORMATIONS ARE NOT AT ALL 
RARE IN THIS STAGE OF THE LIFE CYCLE...COMPLICATING POSITIONING 
IN THE FUTURE. AN INTENSITY OF 25 KT HAS BEEN ESTIMATED DUE TO THE
LEVEL OF ORGANIZATION.

THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING MODERATE SHEAR COMING FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SIDES OF THE STORM...EXPLAINING THE LACK OF 
CONVECTION IN THAT GENERAL AREA. HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO CALL FOR 
LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SHEAR 
RELAXING AS EARLY AS 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE OF 
SHEAR DESPITE SHIPS NOT FORECASTING IT, DEVELOPMENT IS...AT EARLIEST
...EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS...AFTER THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF SHEAR. 
SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ANOMALOUSLY WARM OVER THE REGION...WHICH 
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST 
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD...BUT FOLLOWS THE A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE IVCN CONSENSUS
MODEL AND THE NORMAL SHIPS GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DICTATE THE FUTURE TRACK OF 90E. THE 
GFS AND ECMWF MODEL AGREE THAT THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY RETREAT WEST
AND SOUTH...ALLOWING A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE 
DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...RIDGING BY THE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD KEEP 
GREATER LATITUDINAL INCREASES IN CHECK. AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES 
CLOSER TO THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE...ACCELERATION IN THE FORWARD 
SPEED WILL OCCUR...AS DEPICTED BY MANY MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS 
AND ECMWF. THE CURRENT FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NORTH OF THE TIGHT MODEL 
CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE LOWER INITIALIZATION
LOCATION OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
...IT IS CLOSE TO THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HWRF AND IS A BLEND OF
THE HWRF...GFDL...LGEM...AND GFS GUIDANCE. 

INIT  23/0300Z 10.8N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1500Z 11.1N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0300Z 11.3N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 36H  24/1500Z 12.6N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  25/0300Z 12.0N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  26/0300Z 12.8N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  27/0300Z 13.5N 127.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  28/0300Z 14.1N 133.7W   50 KT  60 MPH

FORECASTER DARREN23