FANDOM


INVEST 90E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
KIEWII-COBRA STRIKE GLOBAL ANALYTICAL CYCLONE CENTER 
1500 UTC MON JUL 23 2012 

SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...CONVECTION AROUND 90E HAS BEEN INCREASING
...PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN SIDE. HOWEVER...SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF 
SPIRAL BANDING...PRESENT A FEW HOURS EARLIER...HAS EVAPORATED. THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL NOT THAT WELL DEFINED...AND 
THE CENTER FIX FOR THE SYSTEM IS LOW CONFIDENCE...NORMAL FOR STORMS 
AT THIS STAGE. DESPITE THE INCREASE OF CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY 
IS MAINTAINED AT 25 KT BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION. 

THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS DIAGNOSING LOW AMOUNTS OF WESTERLY 
SHEAR...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
DESPITE THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THAT MODEL...AND MOST 
MODELS...ARE MUCH LOWER THAN THEY WERE 12 HOURS AGO. IN FACT...THE 
SHIPS GUIDANCE ONLY PREDICTS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FROM 
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS...THE MODEL WHICH WAS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FOR 
THIS SYSTEM...SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CYCLONE. INTERESTINGLY...THE 
ECMWF MODEL HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE STORM. IT IS PUZZLING TO 
UNDERSTAND WHY THIS IS THE CASE...WITH DECENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. 
BECAUSE OF THE SUDDEN SHIFT DOWNWARDS IN THE INTENSITY FORECASTS...
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LOWER THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS HIGHER THAN 
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS. 

THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY THE SAME. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE SOUTHERLY...CAUSING 
A FLATTENING OUT OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH LIMITS LATITUDINAL 
MOVEMENT. THE INVEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO HEAD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION 
OF WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
IS GENERALLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSELY 
FOLLOWS THE GFS AND TVCE TRACKS. 
 
INIT  23/0300Z 10.2N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  23/1500Z 10.8N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  24/0300Z 11.3N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 36H  24/1500Z 11.6N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  25/0300Z 11.9N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  26/0300Z 12.7N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  27/0300Z 13.1N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  28/0300Z 13.9N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

FORECASTER DARREN23

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