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EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (EC) ALEXANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
2100 UTC SAT 14 JULY 2012

...EC SIX HAS BEEN NAMED ALEXANDA BASED ON THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS INDICATE
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF 40 DEGREES WEST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF ALEXANDA WHICH COULD MEAN THE PRESENCE OF A VERY WEAK
STING JET. WE WILL NEVER KNOW DUE TO THIS STORM NOT BEING NEAR LAND...

...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE STORM
GETTING UGLIER. KCSGACC SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE STILL E2.5/40 KT BASED ON
THAT STING JET. I DON'T THINK ALEXANDA WILL GET ANY STRONGER...

FORECAST
--------
INIT...14/1800Z...55N 45W...35 KT  998 MB
12HR...15/0600Z...53N 43W...35 KT 1000 MB
24HR...15/1800Z...53N 39W...30 KT 1002 MB
36HR...16/0600Z...54N 35W...30 KT 1003 MB
48HR...16/1800Z...55N 33W...30 KT 1005 MB
72HR...17/1800Z...56N 27W...25 KT 1006 MB
96HR...18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER KIEWII

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