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EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE (EC) ALEXANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC SUN 15 JULY 2012

...GETTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS STORM IS QUITE EASY. KCSGACC SATELLITE
ESTIMATES ARE E1.5/30 KT...ASCAT HAS 35 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND
THE SAME WITH THE NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...

...THE PROBABLE REASON FOR E1.5/30 KT IS BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF SOME CLOUDS...THE WIND FIELD OF
ALEXANDA IS RATHER SMALL FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. GALES EXTEND FROM 49N TO
51N AND FROM 38W TO 43W. 

...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED BECAUSE THERE ARE NO GALES ON THE COAST...

FORECAST
--------
INIT...15/0600Z...53N 43W...35 KT  999 MB
12HR...15/1800Z...53N 38W...30 KT 1001 MB
24HR...16/0600Z...54N 35W...30 KT 1003 MB
36HR...16/1800Z...55N 33W...30 KT 1003 MB
48HR...17/0600Z...55N 30W...25 KT 1005 MB
72HR...18/0600Z...55N 22W...25 KT 1007 MB
96HR...19/0600Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER KIEWII

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