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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) BARNABAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0300 UTC FRI 6 JULY 2012

BARNABAS DISSIPATED LAST NIGHT...BUT LUCKILY BEFORE THIS ADVISORY...
CAME BACK TO LIFE...THE STORM IS STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN BERLGIUM
BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP SPEED AND MOVE OVER WATER PROBABLY BY
THE NEXT ADVISORY...IT IS HARD TO LOCATE A CENTER VIA SATELLITE DATA
DUE TO THE FACT BARNABAS IS STILL A DEVELOPING GALE.

THE MEDIUM FLOOD RISK REMAINS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ENGLAND. HEAVY...
PERSISTANT RAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED WALES. 85 FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN
FORCE THROUGH OUT ENGLAND AND WALES.

MODELS ARE PRETTY CERTAIN WHERE THIS STORM WILL GO UNTIL WE GET TO
NEAR DISSIPATION POINT. NGP SAYS IT WILL MOVE OVER THE ENGLISH
CHANNEL AND THEN BACK OVER ENGLAND. CMC SAYS IT WILL DISSIPATE IN THE
ENGLISH CHANNEL JUST NORTH OF THE FRENCH COAST AND THE GFS SAYS IT
WILL DISSIPATE JUST TO THE EASTERN NORTH SEA. THE KCSGACC WOULD RATHER
FOLLOW NONE OF THEM AND THE FORECAST BELOW SHOWS THAT BARNABAS
DISSIPATES IN THE STRAITS OF DOVER.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...06/0300Z...51N  4E...20 KT 1008 MB...INLAND
12HR...06/1200Z...52N  1E...25 KT 1005 MB...INLAND
24HR...07/0000Z...51N  6W...35 KT 1000 MB...OVER WATER
36HR...07/1200Z...49N  4W...35 KT  999 MB
48HR...08/0000Z...50N  1W...25 KT 1004 MB
72HR...09/0000Z...DISSIPATED

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