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EUROPEA WINDSTORM (EW) BARNABAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
1500 UTC FRI 6 JULY 2012

...USING BUOY DATA...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF BARNABAS HAS WEAKENED IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS...HOWEVER...WE ARE EXPECTING BARNABAS TO MAINTAIN THIS
INTENSITY UNTIL IT ENTERS THE CELTIC SEA...

...THE ENVIROMENT AGENCY IN ENGLAND AND WALES HAS ISSUED MORE FLOOD WATCHES
AND NOW FLOOD WARNINGS...THERE ARE 112 FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT WITH 32 FLOOD
WARNINGS...THIS WILL BE A SERIOUS FLOOD EVENT...NOT ONLY THAT...BUT BARNABAS
WILL BE AT LEAST 150 MILES AWAY FROM THE ENGLISH COAST UNTIL DISSIPATION...

...WELL GFS IS THE ONLY 06Z MODEL OUT AT THE MOMENT...THEY TAKE IT UP INTO
THE NORTHERN NORTH SEA WHICH IS PRETTY UNREALISTIC...SO WE HAVE DECIDED TO
DISREGARD THIS MODEL...AND THE OTHER MODELS...AND MAKE OUR OWN FORECAST...
DURING THE INIT TO 12HR PERIOD...BARNABAS WILL BE OVER LAND...

FORECAST
--------
INIT...06/1500Z...53N  3E...25 KT 1007 MB...OVER WATER
12HR...07/0000Z...52N  6W...35 KT 1003 MB
24HR...07/1200Z...49N  5W...40 KT 1001 MB
36HR...08/0000Z...50N  2W...30 KT 1005 MB
48HR...08/1200Z...52N  1E...20 KT 1010 MB...INLAND
72HR...09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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