European windstorms/2012/July/Barnabas/Discussion 5

EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) BARNABAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
2100 UTC FRI 6 JULY 2012

...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT AGAIN BASED ON LOWER READINGS
FROM SHIPS AND ALSO LAND DATA...THE GUSTS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 40 KT AS A
45 MPH GUST WAS RECORDED OVER ENGLAND...BARNABAS IS OVER SOUTHWESTERN
WALES JUST GETTING READY TO ENTER THE CELTIC SEA...

...THE UK MET OFFICE...AS OF 06/2100Z...HAVE ISSUED A VERY SEVERE RED
WARNING FOR PLYMOUTH ENGLAND AND EAST OF THE CITY...MEANWHILE...THE
ENGLAND AND WALES ENVIROMENT AGENCY HAVE ISSUED A TOTAL OF 162 FLOOD
WATCHES AND 66 FLOOD WARNINGS...

...IT APPEARS THE GFS IS THE ONLY FORECAST MODEL WE CAN TRUST NOW SINCE
ALL THE OTHER MODELS SAY BARNABAS IS ACTUALLY EW MINA...IT HAS BEEN
DECIDED THAT DUE TO LACK OF MODELS...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST SCHEME WILL NOT
BE ACTIVATED...

FORECAST

INIT...06/2100Z...52N  5W...25 KT 1000 MB...INLAND
12HR...07/0600Z...50N  7W...35 KT  997 MB...OVER WATER
24HR...07/1800Z...50N  3W...30 KT 1001 MB
36HR...08/0600Z...52N  1W...25 KT 1004 MB...INLAND
48HR...08/1800Z...54N  2E...25 KT 1005 MB...OVER WATER
72HR...09/1800Z...DISSIPATED