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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) BARNABAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC SAT 7 JULY 2012

...BARNABAS IS BACK OVER WATER...AND USING A BLEND OF LAND OBSERVATIONS AND
MARINE DATA...THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 2 WINDSTORM. WIND
SPEEDS OF 38 KT WERE RECORDED AT 0700 UTC BY A SHIP IN THE AREA...THEREFORE
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. LAND DATA ALSO SHOWS THAT THE
STORM NOW HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...

...THE ENVIRONMENT AGENCY IN ENGLAND AND WALES HAVE ISSUED 150 FLOOD WATCHES...
57 FLOOD WARNINGS...AND ONE SEVERE FLOOD WARNING...UP IN SCOTLAND...THE
SCOTTISH ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY HAVE ISSUED 9 FLOOD WATCHES AND 9
FLOOD WARNINGS...

...AT FIRST...THE GFS WAS PREDICTING BERNABAS TO GO OVER SCANDINAVIA...THEY
STILL ARE...BUT NOW...THE UKMET AND CMC ARE FORECASTING THAT TOO. DUE TO THIS
SLIGHT CONSENSUS...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP BARNABAS GOING UNTIL JULY 10-11...

FORECAST
--------
INIT...07/0900Z...51N  6W...40 KT  997 MB
12HR...07/1800Z...50N  5W...40 KT  998 MB...INLAND
24HR...08/0600Z...52N  1E...35 KT 1000 MB...INLAND
36HR...08/1800Z...55N  6E...40 KT  998 MB...OVER WATER
48HR...09/0600Z...58N  7E...45 KT  996 MB
72HR...10/0600Z...60N  9E...35 KT 1001 MB...INLAND
96HR...11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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