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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) BARNABAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
2100 UTC SAT 7 JULY 2012

...BARNABAS HAS WEAKENED BASED ON SHIP AND LAND DATA...THE CYCLONE IS NOW
ALSO OVER LAND ONCE AGAIN AND IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER LAND UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...

...THE FLOOD RISK FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS DECREASED...FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
DECREASED TO 135...FLOOD WARNINGS TO 49 AND SEVERE FLOOD WARNINGS TO ONE...

...JUST AS I ADOPT THE MODELS TRACK...THEY MAKE A LARGE AND IMPORTANT CHANGE
TO THE TRACK...INSTEAD OF GOING OVER SCANDINAVIA...BARNABAS SHOULD DISSIPATE
IN THE CENTRAL NORTH SEA...

...THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES BARNABAS OVER SOUTHEAST ENGLAND WHILE 
AT WINDS OF 35 KT...HOWEVER...THESE WILL BE LOCATED OVER WATER. THE STORM
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH SEA WHILE STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST AS
BARNABAS ATTAINS 40 KT WINDS AND A CATEGORY 2 STATUS...IT DISSIPATES. IT IS
LIKELY THAT A NEW LOW FORMS A FEW HOURS AFTER THIS LOW DISSIPATES...

FORECAST
--------
INIT...07/2100Z...50N  4W...40 KT  999 MB...INLAND
12HR...08/0600Z...52N  1E...35 KT 1002 MB...INLAND
24HR...08/1800Z...55N  3E...40 KT 1000 MB...OVER WATER
36HR...09/0600Z...56N  6E...40 KT  998 MB
48HR...09/1800Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER KIEWII

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