European windstorms/2012/July/Mina/Advisory 2

EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) MINA ADVISORY 2
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC TUE 3 JULY 2012

...MINA WEAKENING SLOWLY...

INFORMATION FROM 0900 UTC TUE 3 JULY 2012

CURRENT LOCATION: 55 NORTH 21 WEST
CURRENT WINDS: 35 MPH
CURRENT PRESSURE: 997 MILLIBARS

DISCUSSION AND FORECAST

AN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z THIS MORNING SHOWED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT, THUS
THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED. MODEL UNCERTAINTY HAS GOTTEN MUCH HIGHER
THIS MORNING. THE GFS AND CMC MODELS SHOW MINA DISSIPATING LATER
TONIGHT, BUT THE UKMET MODEL TAKES THE STORM UNTIL TUESDAY. THE KCSGAAC
WOULD RATHER FOLLOW THE MORE REALISTIC SOLUTION OF THE UKMET. THE
SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM IS BAD. AS PREVIOUSLY SAID...THERE
IS NO CONVECTION BASED ON THE FACT THAT -25C CLOUD TOPS WERE LOCATED
WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE CENTER.

INIT...03/0600Z...997 MB
12HR...03/1800Z...1000 MB
24HR...04/0600Z...1001 MB
36HR...04/1800Z...1005 MB...INLAND
48HR...05/0600Z...1009 MB...OVER WATER
72HR...06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER KIEWII