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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) MINA DISCUSSION 5
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC WED 4 JULY 2012

LOW CLOUD REMAINS AROUND THE CENTER OF EW MINA. BUT THIS LOW
CLOUD IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON FOR A WHILE BEFORE DISSIPATING WHEN
MINA REACHES LAND. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN IRELAND
BRIEFLY TODAY BEFORE RE-ENTERING THE CELTIC SEA. FINAL LANDFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST FRANCE TOMORROW. NOW THAT'S WHAT I CALL
A BIG FORECAST CHANGE.

FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN. THE ENGLAND AND WALES ENVIROMENTAL
AGENCY HAS 10 FLOOD WATCHES IN FORCE FOR SOUTHWEST ENGLAND AND ONE
FLOOD WARNING FOR THE SAME AREA. DUE TO THE UNSTABLE ENVIROMENT...
MINA WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE UK AND IRELAND ON
JULY 5, 6 AND 7.

MODEL FORECASTS NOW. GFS DOING IT'S BEST TO KEEP MINA ALIVE SINCE
THE MODEL STILL HAS IT STRENGTHENING OVER SCANDINAVIA. THE KCSGAAC
REMAINS WITH THE UKMET.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...04/0900Z...25 KT 1000 MB
12HR...04/1800Z...25 KT 1004 MB...INLAND
24HR...05/0600Z...25 KT 1006 MB...OVER WATER
36HR...05/1800Z...25 KT 1009 MB...INLAND
48HR...06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

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