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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) MINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
2100 UTC WED 4 JULY 2012

THE INTENSITY OF MINA IS BASED ON A BLEND OF OSCAT AND ASCAT DATA. A
MAJOR FORECAST CHANGE HAS OCCURRED...THAT WILL BE EXPLAINED LATER IN
THE DISCUSSION. THE CURRENT MOTION OF THIS STORM IS 180/07 KT. IT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARDS BEFORE TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO TRAVEL
DISRUPTION IN SCOTLAND'S TWO BIG CITIES. THE ENGLAND AND WALES
ENVIROMENTAL AGENCY HAS DECIDED TO ISSUE MORE FLOOD WATCHES FOR SOUTH-
WEST ENGLAND AND ALSO SOUTH EAST ENGLAND.

UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE 50/50. BOTH THE CMC AND UKMET HAVE THE
STORM MAKING A LOOP ACROSS THE UNITED KINGDOM AND IRELAND ON FRIDAY...
WHILE THE GFS AND NGP MODELS MAKE IT DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST FRANCE.
UNLESS IT STRENGTHENS TO 75/15...THE KCSGACC WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE GFS AND NGP

FORECAST
--------
INIT...04/2100Z...51N 10W...30 KT 1001 MB
12HR...05/0600Z...49N  8W...30 KT 1005 MB
24HR...05/1800Z...48N  4W...25 KT 1008 MB...INLAND
36HR...06/0600Z...49N  2W...20 KT 1011 MB...INLAND
48HR...06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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