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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) MINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC THU 5 JULY 2012

AN ASCAT PASS AT 0000Z SHOWS WINDS OF 25 KT...HOWEVER...I THINK THIS
MAY BE TOO HIGH. THERE IS LITERALLY NO CONVECTION TO THE NORTH...EAST
OR WEST. SOME MEDIUM-SIZED CLOUD REMAINS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. IF
THIS SMALL CONVECTION DISSIPATES...MINA WILL NO LONGER BE A WINDSTORM.

DUE TO THE FORECAST...IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT MINA WILL NOT BE THE LOW
THAT CAUSES THE FLOODING. A NEW LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER BELGIUM AND MOVE SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL ENGLAND.

OH BOY. IT IS STILL 50/50 BETWEEN THE MODELS. ONE HALF WANTS TO GO
BACK OVER ENGLAND...BUT THE OTHER HALF WANTS MINA TO DISSIPATE OVER
FRANCE AND A NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER BELGIUM. I THINK I WOULD RATHER GO
WITH THE STORM DISSIPATING OVER FRANCE AND THE NEW LOW FORMING. DON'T
BE SURPRISED IF I GET THE FORECAST WRONG.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...05/0900Z...50N  8W...25 KT 1003 MB
12HR...05/1800Z...48N  3W...20 KT 1006 MB...INLAND
24HR...06/0600Z...49N  1W...15 KT 1013 MB...INLAND
36HR...06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

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