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EUROPEAN WINDSTORM (EW) MINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
1500 UTC THU 5 JULY 2012

UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST ASCAT PASS DID NOT GO OVER MINA. HOWEVER...
OSCAT DID. IT RECORDED WINDS OF 25 KTS...WHICH NOW...I THINK IS REASONABLE.
THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
WHICH IS PRODUCING THUNDERY SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST FRANCE. THE HIGHEST BUOY
REPORT IS 20 KT.

THE ONLY FLOODING NOW EXPECTED FROM MINA IS FROM HEAVY THUNDERY SHOWERS
TODAY. THE REST OF THE FLOODING WILL BE TRIGGERED BY ANOTHER LOW...SEE
WINDSTORM OUTLOOK.

THANKFULLY THE MODELS ARE NOW 75/25. 3 OUT OF 4 MODELS SHOW MINA DISSIPATING
OVER FRANCE. THE OTHER ONE...CMC...SHOWS MINA CONTINUING ON OVER THE UNITED
KINGDOM.

FORECAST
--------
INIT...05/1500Z...48N  5W...25 KT 1005 MB
12HR...06/0000Z...48N  2W...15 KT 1012 MB...INLAND
36HR...06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

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