West Pacific Basin/2012/August/Frank/Discussion 2

TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC FRI 03 AUG 2012

FRANK STILL DOES NOT LOOK VERY ORGANIZED...BUT SINCE 35-40 KT WINDS CONTINUED
TO BE REPORTED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KT. TS FRANK SHOULD BE ENTERING PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING AS
THE WIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY TEARING APART THE STORM HAS DISSIPATED. ALSO...THE
PRESSURE OF TS FRANK IS RATHER LOW FOR WHAT SHOULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
AS SAID BY THE JTWC...SAB...TAFB.

THE FORECAST HAS HAD A BIG CHANGE. ORIGINALLY MEANT TO PEAK AT 60 KT...WE
HAVE UPPED THAT WIND SPEED TO 85 KT KNOWING THE PERFECT CONDITIONS.

FORECAST

INIT...03/0600Z...24.4N 139.7E...40 KT 991 MB
12HR...03/1800Z...25.3N 137.2E...45 KT 987 MB
24HR...04/0600Z...25.7N 134.4E...50 KT 982 MB
36HR...04/1800Z...26.0N 132.0E...55 KT 978 MB
48HR...05/0600Z...26.6N 129.9E...60 KT 975 MB
72HR...06/0600Z...26.3N 128.1E...70 KT 966 MB
96HR...07/0600Z...26.0N 128.7E...80 KT 957 MB
120HR..08/0600Z...26.5N 129.3E...85 KT 954 MB

FORECASTER KIEWII