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TROPICAL STORM (TS) SAOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
KIEWII-COBRASTRIKE GACC DUNDEE UK
0900 UTC SUN 29 JULY 2012

A LONG-LIVED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PHILIPPINES HAS
DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS NEAR 50 KT/60 MPH. AVAILABLE
INFORMATION SHOWS THAT TS SAOLA MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER EARLIER TODAY.

TS SAOLA DOES HAVE BANDING FEATURES...WHICH SUGGESTS TYPHOON STRENGTH
IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST BELOW SHOWS THAT THE
STORM SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF TAIWAN AS A CATEGORY 2 TYPHOON AND 
THEN MAKING LANDFALL ON EASTERN CHINA AT THAT INTENSITY.

MULTI-AGENCY INTENSITIES
------------------------
KCSGACC...50 KT
JTWC......45 KT
JMA.......55 KT
NMC.......50 KT
CWB.......55 KT
KMA.......50 KT
HKO.......45 KT

FORECAST
--------
INIT...29/0600Z...18.8N 125.5E...50 KT 986 MB
12HR...29/1800Z...19.5N 124.7E...60 KT 978 MB
24HR...30/0600Z...20.4N 124.2E...70 KT 970 MB
36HR...30/1800Z...21.8N 123.7E...75 KT 966 MB
48HR...31/0600Z...22.7N 123.6E...85 KT 958 MB
72HR...01/0600Z...23.6N 123.5E...90 KT 954 MB
96HR...02/0600Z...26.2N 122.9E...95 KT 948 MB
120HR..03/0600Z...28.6N 121.7E...45 KT 991 MB...INLAND CHINA

NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE
---------------------
0900 UTC SUN 29 JULY 2012

FORECASTER KIEWII

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